The first half of the week looks relatively quiet, but it’s just the calm before the storm! The latter half is marked by high-impact events, including 4 major central bank meetings (Canada, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan), as well as crucial inflation and GDP figures. Traders should keep a close eye on US updates since a potential government shutdown could delay or disrupt the release of key data.
Eurozone:
● 9:00 a.m. GMT: Germany Ifo Business Climate Index (October). Actual figures: 88.4; Forecast: 88.1; Previous: 87.7. Critical for the EUR. This indicator reflects business sentiment in the eurozone’s largest economy. Strong results could lend support to the euro.
United States:
● 2:00 p.m. GMT: New Home Sales (September). Previous: 710K; Forecast: 800K. Critical for the USD. (Release uncertain due to the government shutdown.) This measure of housing market activity affects both consumer spending and GDP.
Japan:
● 5:00 a.m. GMT: Bank of Japan Core CPI (Year-over-Year). Previous: 2.1%; Forecast: 2.0%. Critical for the JPY. A key gauge of inflation that shapes expectations for the BoJ’s future monetary policy.
United States:
● 2:00 GMT: CB Consumer Confidence (October). Previous: 93.9; Forecast: 94.2. Critical for the USD. (Release uncertain due to the government shutdown.) This index measures consumer sentiment, directly influencing spending and overall economic growth.
Australia:
● 12:30 a.m. GMT: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q3). Previous: 1.1%; Forecast: 0.7%. Critical for the AUD. A key inflation indicator that guides the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decisions.
Canada:
● 1:45 p.m. GMT: Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision. Previous: 2.25%; Forecast: 2.50%. Critical for the CAD! One of four central bank meetings this week. Any changes or hints of future adjustments could trigger high volatility in the Canadian dollar.
United States:
● 2:30 p.m. GMT: Crude Oil Inventories. Previous: -0.961M. Important for oil markets (Brent, WTI).
● 6:00 p.m. GMT: Fed Interest Rate Decision. Forecast: 4.00%; Previous: 4.25%. Critical event of the week for global markets! The decision will impact the USD, stock indices, and commodities.
● 6:30 p.m. GMT: FOMC Press Conference. Critically important for the USD and global markets! The Fed Chair’s post-meeting remarks often spark even more volatility than the rate decision itself.
Japan:
● 3:00 a.m. GMT: Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision. Forecast: 0.50%; Previous: 0.50%. Critical for the JPY! Another major central bank meeting. Any unexpected move could cause sharp swings in the yen.
Eurozone:
● 9:00 a.m. GMT: German GDP (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q3). Forecast: 0.0%; Previous: -0.3%. Critical for the EUR. Reflects the economic performance of the eurozone’s largest economy.
● 10:00 a.m. GMT: Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Q3). Previous: 0.1%; Forecast: 0.1%. Critical for the EUR. A key indicator of regional economic growth.
● 1:00 p.m. GMT: German CPI (Month-over-Month) (October). Previous: 0.2%; Forecast: 0.2%. Critical for the EUR. Preliminary inflation reading for Germany.
● 1:15 p.m. GMT: ECB Interest Rate Decision. Previous: 2.15%; Forecast: 2.15%. Key event for the EUR! Markets will be watching closely for policy guidance.
● 1:45 p.m. GMT: ECB Press Conference. Critical for the EUR! The ECB President’s comments could drive strong market movements.
United States:
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: GDP (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q3). Previous: 3.0%; Forecast: 3.8%. Critical for the USD. A key indicator of the overall health and momentum of the US economy.
China:
● 1:30 a.m. GMT: Manufacturing PMI (October). Previous: 49.7; Forecast: 49.8. Critical for the CNY and global sentiment. A leading indicator of manufacturing sector performance.
Eurozone:
● 10:00 a.m. GMT: CPI (Year-over-Year) (October). Previous: 2.1%; Forecast: 2.2%. Important for the EUR. A major inflation indicator that will influence ECB policy expectations.
United States:
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: Core PCE Price Index (Year-over-Year) (September). Previous: 2.9%. Critical for the USD. (Release uncertain due to the shutdown.) The Fed’s preferred inflation measure.
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: Core PCE Price Index (Month-over-Month) (September). Previous: 0.2%; Forecast: 0.2%. Critical for the USD. (Release uncertain due to the shutdown.) Reflects monthly inflation dynamics closely tracked by the Fed.
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