This week promises to be eventful: the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is set to announce its rate decision, and multiple speeches from central bank leaders, including the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England, are on the agenda.
The main focus will be on Wednesday (FOMC Minutes) and Friday. Markets are awaiting the release of key US data, which were delayed last Friday due to the government shutdown and are now tentatively rescheduled for October 10. However, suppose the shutdown continues for several weeks. In that case, the Fed may be forced to make its rate decision on October 29 without access to this crucial data. This scenario could heighten volatility and fuel speculation around the USD.
United Kingdom:
● 5:30 p.m. GMT: Speech by Bank of England Governor Bailey. Comments may offer clues about the GBP’s future monetary policy.
Japan:
● 11:30 p.m. GMT: Household Spending Index (Month-over-Month) (August). Forecast: 0.1%; Previous: 1.7%.
Germany:
● 6:00 a.m. GMT: Factory Orders (Month-over-Month) (August). (Forecast: 1.3%; Previous: -2.9%). A strong rebound is expected, which would support the EUR.
United States:
● 2:00 p.m. GMT: Speech by FOMC member Bostic.
● 3:30 p.m. GMT: Speech by FOMC member Kashkari.
Eurozone:
● 4:10 p.m. GMT: ECB President Lagarde to speak. This indicator is important for gauging the ECB’s future interest rate policy.
New Zealand:
● 1:00 a.m. GMT: Interest rate decision. (Forecast: 2.75%; Previous: 3.00%). This is a key event for the NZD! A rate cut is expected. Any surprise decision could trigger a strong market reaction.
United States:
● 7:00 p.m. GMT: Release of FOMC Minutes. Markets will focus on how the Fed viewed the economy before the shutdown. High USD volatility expected.
United States:
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: Fed Chair Powell to speak. His comments will be crucial for the dollar amid the shutdown and missing NFP data.
●12:30 p.m. GMT: Initial Jobless Claims. Forecast: 223K; Previous: 218K.
United States:
●12:30 p.m. GMT: Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Unemployment Rate. (Forecast: 52K / 4.3%). Main event of the week, if released!
PLEASE NOTE! Due to the government shutdown, this data may be delayed or canceled. If not released, the USD will face elevated uncertainty.
Canada:
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: Unemployment Rate (September). (Forecast: 7.2%; Previous: 7.1%). It is released simultaneously with the US NFP (if available), likely causing sharp volatility in USD/CAD.
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